Dubai Casino: Is MGM’s $2.5 Billion Island Resort Just Waiting for a License?

There is a story circulating in Dubai property circles about a Dubai casino — one that officially does not exist. A 25-acre artificial island is rising off the coast of Umm Suqeim, less than a kilometre from the Burj Al Arab. Three of the most famous Las Vegas hotel brands — MGM Grand, Bellagio, and Aria — are being built into a single 1,400-room resort. The total project budget is over USD 2.5 billion.

Construction is being executed by China State Construction Engineering Corporation under a USD 1.2 billion contract — the largest construction deal Dubai has signed since 2017. And tucked inside the masterplan is a 250,000-square-foot purpose-built podium that, according to MGM’s own CEO, has been designed to operate as a casino if regulators approve it.

The official line from MGM, from Wasl, and from every government statement to date is the same: this is a non-gaming integrated resort. There is no Dubai casino. There never will be. Move on.

The numbers tell a different story. Because nobody spends USD 2.5 billion to build a Vegas-branded three-hotel mega-resort with a 250,000-square-foot vacant podium on prime Jumeirah beachfront and then leaves the most profitable square footage in the global hospitality industry empty. That isn’t how this business works. So what is actually going on, and what does it mean for the property market around it?

I work as a broker in Dubai. The Island is one of the projects clients ask me about most often, and the answer is more interesting than either the official statement or the social-media speculation.
What We Know About MGM’s Dubai Casino Project

The project is called The Island by Wasl. It is being developed jointly by Wasl Asset Management Group, which is owned by the Government of Dubai, and MGM Resorts International, the Las Vegas casino and hospitality giant. It was first announced in 2017 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum himself. Then it went dormant for six years.

In November 2023, the project was quietly restarted. The construction contract was awarded to China State Construction Engineering Corporation. The artificial island has been reclaimed. The podium has been built. The main building works are scheduled to complete in Q3 2027, with hotel opening pushed back from 2027 to the second half of 2028.

The resort will combine three MGM properties under one roof — MGM Grand (entertainment and convention), Bellagio (ultra-luxury), and Aria (modern lifestyle). It will include 1,400 hotel rooms and apartments, a 110-metre entertainment tower, a 500,000-square-foot theatre, restaurants, pools, and the now-famous 250,000-square-foot podium.

That podium is the entire story behind the Dubai casino speculation.

What MGM’s CEO Has Said About a Dubai Casino

In multiple investor calls and industry conferences through 2024 and 2025, MGM’s CEO Bill Hornbuckle has said versions of the same sentence: “Our existing project could include a world-class gaming component, if approved.” In September 2025, at a gaming industry conference, he was more direct — saying he was surprised the UAE had not yet ruled on Dubai’s casino license, and that MGM and Wasl were “waiting for the ruler to say go ahead.”

Read that sentence carefully. They are not asking if there will be a casino. They are asking when.
The 250,000-square-foot podium is not a hospitality space waiting for a use case. It is a casino floor waiting for a license. The kitchens, the security infrastructure, the cash-handling systems, the surveillance architecture — when you build a podium of that size next to Vegas-branded hotels, you are not building it to host conventions.

The UAE Casino Regulator and Why It Matters

In 2023, the UAE quietly established the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority — GCGRA — a federal body designed to oversee commercial gambling. The first chair of the GCGRA is Jim Murren, the former CEO of MGM Resorts. The federal regulator that will decide whether MGM gets a Dubai casino license is led by MGM’s own former CEO.

The UAE’s first casino license was not granted to Dubai. It was granted to Ras Al Khaimah, where

is building a 2027-opening integrated resort on Al Marjan Island. Wynn’s CEO has publicly stated he expects it to be “the first and only casino in the country” for the foreseeable future.

This is the wedge. The federal authority exists. The first license has been granted to a smaller emirate. The infrastructure for a Dubai casino is already built. What is missing is the political signal from the Dubai ruler — and only that signal.

Why Dubai Hasn’t Approved a Casino License Yet

Three structural reasons explain why Dubai has not granted itself a casino license yet, even with the podium already built.

Image management. Dubai has spent thirty years building its brand as a family tourism destination, a financial hub, and a culturally moderate Islamic city. A casino is a difficult fit with that brand. The rulers are not opposed to gambling revenue — they are deeply cautious about how it is announced.

Religious sensitivity. The UAE is a Muslim country. Casino gambling is religiously prohibited under Islamic law. Local politics around opening a Dubai casino is sensitive in a way that the Ras Al Khaimah opening is not — RAK is smaller, less visible, and easier to position as an experiment.
Sequencing. Letting Ras Al Khaimah open first, watching how the international response lands, watching how the regulatory framework matures, and only then granting Dubai’s license — this is the standard UAE playbook. Test in a smaller emirate. Scale to Dubai once the model is proven.

How a Dubai Casino Would Reprice Surrounding Real Estate

This is where the Dubai casino story gets relevant for property buyers.

The Island sits in Umm Suqeim, directly adjacent to some of the most expensive beachfront real estate in the city — the Burj Al Arab corridor, Jumeirah Beach Residences, the newly delivered Jumeirah Marsa Al Arab. If a Vegas-branded casino opens in 2028 or 2029, the residential addresses within walking distance — and even within a 10-minute drive — will reprice. This is what happened in Las Vegas every time a major resort opened on the Strip. Adjacent residential pricing follows the entertainment density.

Branded residences are the more interesting layer. MGM-branded residences are part of the Island masterplan. If the casino license eventually clears, those branded residences become the only casino-adjacent branded inventory in the UAE. There is no equivalent product in Ras Al Khaimah, because the Wynn project is not paired with the same volume of branded residential.

The signal for investors right now is not “buy the casino.” There is no casino, and there may not be one for years. The signal is to watch the surrounding land and watch the Jumeirah corridor pricing curve. The probability of a Dubai casino license between 2027 and 2030 is, in my reading, meaningfully higher than zero — and the market has not yet priced that into the surrounding real estate.

So Is Dubai Actually Building a Casino?

Officially, no. Practically, the infrastructure is built, the brands are in place, the regulator has been established with an MGM alumnus at the top, and the project’s CEO is on record saying they are “waiting for the signal.” Every element of a Dubai casino exists except the license.

The question is not whether Dubai is building a casino. The question is whether Dubai will eventually license what it has already built.

The honest answer for any client asking me right now is this. Dubai does not announce things until it is ready to deliver them. Behind closed doors, the decisions that matter have already been made. The public statement always lags the actual policy by 12 to 24 months. By the time the official announcement happens, the buildable land near The Island will already have been bought by people who were paying attention to the signals rather than to the headlines.

The Island is a USD 2.5 billion construction project with a 250,000-square-foot empty room. Make of that what you will.